[art]by[odo]

nowism

The future of humanity, a topic of continual discussion by the movers & shakers, the big thinkers and think tankers, the thinkerless and cantankerous. Scientists, sociologists and politicos all believe our problems are numerous. They believe that to solve our problems we need to look to the future, that our sights and policies are not long term enough to insure our long term survival.

Here again, a contrarian view will be presented. Our looking to the future is a bad habit. Humans have been doing it for millennia. The policy has failed. It failed in Ancient China. It failed in Egypt. It failed in Rome, and it continues to fail today on an ever grander scale. You may disagree. You may reply, “That isn’t logical. If we concern ourselves with making a better future, the future will get better.” Yes, superficially obvious and seemingly logical. The logic is based on an assumption grounded on a single condition : prediction. If one can see the future by accurately extrapolating current conditions into the next few years or decades, then it should be possible to take the necessary actions to make a better future than the one we’re blindly heading.

There’s the downfall. Our ability to predict the future is flawed. In the past the flaws were ignorance and superstition. Today the flaws are arrogance, hubris and denial. We refuse to admit that the future is impossible to predict without infinite knowledge of current conditions. There are too many variables to take into account. Our inability to make accurate predictions means we can’t make the appropriate plans for improving the future.

All of today’s big issues started decades, centuries, or millennia ago. All were ignored or assumed inevitable. All were left for some future time to find a solution. All have progressed to proportions that, now, require heroic efforts to even mediate. No matter how much technology progresses, we are so far behind, that our future, if one looks at our past performance along with current behavior, appears bleak. That’s not a detailed prediction, or much of a prediction of any kind, but it is certainly based on the human track record. Most of all, it doesn’t rely on a crystal ball, the I Ching, divining rods, clairvoyants, tarot cards, or Artificial Ignorance.

Despite the poor record, there have been a number of prescient people who had good, solid, longterm outlooks based on simple extrapolation of the trailing practices. Those prognosticators have not necessarily claimed their projections to be precise predictions, but as warnings to where we’re headed if we continued on the same path. They’ve made a stir; they’ve been naysayed; they’ve been forgotten; and just as with our immediate problems, put off. Interesting, isn’t it? Even when the outlooks are on target, or in the vicinity, they’re useless if no one listens and takes action.(1)

That doesn’t mean we can’t head in a better direction. If, instead, humans were to take on a short term focus, and ask, “What needs improvement here and now?” Ask, “What can we do to make today better?” Take action now on the immediate problems for immediate results. We would see real progress in real time, not some imaginary future. We’d have problems solved before they balloon in the future, before they escalate into problems bigger than we have the resources to solve.

A policy of fix it now, doesn’t require special people, or psychics, or multimillion dollar studies, and certainly not super computers. It only requires a little thought, and a little consideration, and a quick glance around us to see what little changes could be done to make today a little better. No reforms, no revolutions, no reinventing the wheel. Simple, little, baby-steps to improve the now.

Afterthought : I have come up against, once more, the difficulty with definitions. I’ve struggled with selfishness. I’ve struggled with individualism. I’ve found subtle and important distinctions in what these words mean and how these words are understood. After writing this post, I ooogled “short-termism” not expecting to find much, if anything. I found that it’s not something I’ve made up. No, there are dozens of articles talking about the perils of short-termism. I realized that my conception of short-termism, and its value, is quite divergent from the way those other articles speak of it. The common conception of short-termism is understood as an inconsiderate “grab all you can, devil may care” attitude. This got me to change the original subtitle of this post from “short-termism” to “nowism.” Again again, I found numerous articles about “nowism” and, of course, with a different definition from mine. Those others concentrating on mysticism, religion, and positive thinking with a splash of mindfulness. No and no. Those definitions are, as usual, shallow, trite, and off the mark. They are narrow minded. As usual, they’re not looking closely enough. They’re not examining alternate angles. By just taking a quick glance, broader views of meaning are not being considered, nor understood. Ignoring consequences of any action, near-term or far-term, self-centered or altruistic, is always missing something.

One-sided approaches never lead to good solutions. Evaluating options and analyzing multiple viewpoints takes time. It takes examined thought. Snap judgements and formulaic answers are what computers do. Real intelligence is slow, methodical, and creative.(3)

(1)Examples of note : First, The Silent Spring, Rachel Carson, 1962. Second, The Population Bomb, Paul R. & Anne H. Ehrlich, 1968. The Population Bomb is included as an example with reservation because of his fanaticism which has overshadowed the core of his argument; that overpopulation and its continued growth is the root cause of all our global issues. Third, The Limits to Growth, Club of Rome, 1972. This last one is the hardest hitting and most comprehensive combining several additional factors beyond environmental degradation and population. All three of these, among others, were published at a time when correcting course would have been far easier and more effective for securing the future.(2)

Plus a more recent example to contemplate. It also refers back to the others as well as helping bring us up-to-date. Following are two links, one to a short review of Latouche’s essay, and another to the complete work. I have just started reading the essay, and as early as the Introduction, it became clear that a review gives you a quick glance and a rough idea, but it can’t provide you the whole picture with all its connections. The complete essay is necessary to fully understand the expanse of his views on our global conditions : Farewell to Growth, Serge Latouche, original French edition, Mille et une nuits, department de la Librairie Arthème Fayard, 2007; English edition, Polity Press, 2009 — Link to a comprehensive review  : Review of Farewell to Growth 

Link to a PDF of the entire essay with parts highlighted, however every paragraph is worthy of highlight : Farewell to Growth

(2)And I keep finding more interesting related reading. This one by Isaac Asimov, written in the late 1980s, that asks the question continually going around in my mind, “Is anyone paying attention?” and his essay : Is Anyone Listening?  Does anyone care?

(3) a little stab at creativity : Ouroborus